UK Economics Weekly King fends off pressure to follow ECB Mervyn King faced tough questioning by the Treasury Committee last week on a couple of issues - and fought back hard. The Governor strongly resisted suggestions that the Bank of England should follow... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to start splashing some cash As soon as last week’s figures showed that public sector borrowing is likely to undershoot the OBR’s forecast this year, the Chancellor was inundated with calls for what he should do with this... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in energy prices won't stop inflation falling Mervyn King’s forecast of a “zig-zag” year grabbed the headlines after last week’s Inflation Report, with the Governor warning that June’s extra bank holiday would lead to a bumpy path for output this... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE unlikely to be nearing an end Some interpreted the Committee’s decision to increase QE by “only” £50bn last week as a sign that it is close to thinking that it has done enough. However, we think that next week’s Inflation Report... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should the MPC follow the ECB’s example? Last week’s Bank of England figures showed that bank lending to firms and households fell in December, while conditions in bank funding markets have continued to get worse. In contrast, LIBOR spreads... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Contraction unlikely to be just a blip High inflation, rather than ‘temporary factors’ or the euro-zone debt crisis, seems to have been the key driver of the economy’s shift from stagnation to contraction in the fourth quarter. While at... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s safe-haven status remains secure The UK’s AAA rating always looked safer than the ratings of those euro-zone countries which have been recently downgraded. The UK might yet be in line for a downgrade at some point. But even then, it... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Pension funds hit by fall in bond yields While the drop in bond yields in recent months has been a generally welcome development, it does have its disadvantages, as highlighted by last week’s figures on company pension schemes. But last week... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery getting back on track? The start of the new year has brought the good news that the UK might just about have managed to avoid falling back into recession at the end of 2011. However, we think that it would be premature to... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does 2012 hold in store? Consumers finally appear to have opened their wallets in the last few days. However, the big picture is that the economy has ended the year on a pretty weak note. The consensus expects an expansion in... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK unlikely to be first in line for a downgrade Diplomatic relations between the UK and Europe worsened again last week following suggestions by French officials that the ratings agencies should be turning their attention to the UK rather than... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas? The high street has been emitting an unrelenting flow of gloomy news in recent weeks. We are reluctant to conclude just yet that Christmas trading will be a total write-off. Nevertheless, a splurge... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Chancellor’s straitjacket could get tighter We doubt when he created his fiscal framework that the Chancellor ever imagined quite what a straitjacket he was creating for himself. At a time when he is under pressure to slow down his austerity... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Credit easing an important step, but no quick fix Credit easing marks an important step forward in the Government’s efforts to tackle the lack of bank lending. But it is unlikely to transform the near-term outlook for corporate lending. 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone really to blame? The Government was lambasted last week for blaming the UK’s poor economic performance on events in the euro-zone. While the Government might have jumped the gun a bit, it won’t be long before the... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Risks from euro-zone intensify With the euro-zone crisis entering a far more dangerous phase last week, the threats posed to the UK from overseas are looming ever larger. September’s trade data, showing a sharp drop in export... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
