UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis casts cloud over UK We now expect GDP growth of only 1% this year (compared to our previous forecast of 1.5%). We still expect growth of only 1.5% in 2012 and think that the economy will struggle to expand by more than 2... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weak Q2 due to more than just temporary factors The activity surveys and the official data we have so far suggest that quarterly GDP growth in Q2 was just 0.2% or 0.3%. Part of this weakness just reflects a number of temporary adverse factors... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tough times on the high street Last week brought news of a string of collapses among well-known retailers. Meanwhile, even the relative winners on the high street are having to work harder to gain sales, with discounting reportedly... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sagging tax receipts put cracks in Plan A Last week’s public finances figures for May brought the clearest signs yet that the weakness of the economy is starting to hinder the Government’s fiscal consolidation efforts. 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK escapes Greek contagion fears The Greek debt crisis escalated last week, but the UK has remained immune from the contagion fears that have spread to other debt-ridden countries in Europe. 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The Chancellor is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Yes, the fiscal squeeze is stifling the recovery. But abandoning the consolidation would not guarantee that growth prospects would... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Even the industrial recovery hits the rocks On the face of it, the sharp drop in last week’s manufacturing PMI suggested that output in the sector has actually started to fall again. It is clearly disappointing that even the previously bright... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Re-balancing in the extreme A re-balancing of the economy has been needed for some time – but this wasn’t quite what we had in mind! The danger now is that domestic demand continues to weaken, while net trade is unable to keep... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Consumer outlook still poor The breakdown of the strong 1.1% monthly rise in sales volumes in April suggested that this strength primarily reflected a temporary boost from better weather and the Royal Wedding. What’s more, last... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to fall further next year than MPC expects On the face of it, last week’s Inflation Report – showing inflation projected to be on target in two years’ time – endorsed market expectations of a modest rise in interest rates over the next couple... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could reinforce drop in rate expectations This will be the fourth Inflation Report in a row that the MPC will be in the uncomfortable position of revising down its GDP growth forecast for 2011 but revising up its inflation forecast. But of... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery, what recovery? Clearly there is a limit to how much weight anyone, the MPC included, should put on the provisional GDP figures. Nonetheless, it would take a pretty substantial upward revision to leave the recovery... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Royal Wedding adds to economic uncertainty At first glance, the marriage of Prince William to Miss Catherine Middleton on Friday 29th April hardly seems to be an important economic issue that merits close examination. Nonetheless, the Royal... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation drop gives MPC some breathing space March’s fall in CPI inflation has given the doves on the MPC some welcome relief in the run-up to the Committee’s crucial May meeting. Granted, it is far too early to proclaim that the inflation... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Q1 disappoint? In theory, GDP has the scope to rise pretty sharply in Q1, by over 1%. But the latest data suggests that the rebound might have been rather more modest than this. 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Slow progress on re-balancing Last week’s news suggested that the UK economy is still making little progress on the rebalancing that is needed to pave the way for a strong and sustainable recovery. 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
