UK Economics Weekly Slow progress on bank lending The interim results published by the major UK banks last week showed that RBS and Lloyds are on track to meet their new lending commitments to the Government. But these lending targets have become... 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much longer can retail spending hold up? You could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on consumers. After all, figures released last week on retail spending and the housing market gave markedly different signals on the current... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests won’t transform outlook While the UK banks look likely to receive a relatively clean bill of health in the stress tests, tha is unlikely to have much of an impact on the outlook for the economy. After all, while recent weeks... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Pick-up in services inflation shouldn’t last Last week’s rise in core inflation suggested that the spare capacity in the economy still isn’t having much of an impact. Core goods inflation is now on a downward trend – but is being offset by a... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly As good as it gets? Data released last week supported the view that, while the economy probably grew at a solid pace in the second quarter, that may be as good as it gets as far as the pace of the UK economic recovery is... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OBR too optimistic on jobs Already we’re starting to get a feel for just how nasty the effects of the looming cuts in government spending will be. The OBR last week revealed that it expects over 600,000 public sector job cuts... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal worries eased, but not eliminated Last week’s tougher than expected Budget has helped to ease market concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook, but it won’t eliminate them altogether. For a start, the vast bulk of the planned fiscal... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Budget squeeze will hurt Last week’s interim forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) sprung something of a surprise in revealing a lower projected path for public borrowing over the next five years than that... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OBR’s forecasts to underline need for a tough Budget This week’s pronouncements by the newly created Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) could set a gloomy backdrop for the emergency Budget due in just over a week’s time. For a start, the OBR is... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery remains fitful Cracks already seem to be appearing in the recovery on the services side of the economy. Admittedly, overall GDP growth in the second quarter could still prove to be fairly reasonable, in part due to... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OECD wide of the mark on interest rates Our initial response to the OECD’s recommendation that UK interest rates should rise to 3.5% by the end of next year (“completely mad”) may have been a bit extreme. Nonetheless, it seems to neglect... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC right to be sanguine on inflation, for now Last week’s letter from Mervyn King to the new Chancellor George Osborne after inflation surprised on the upside again drew accusations that the Governor is being dangerously sanguine on the inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling caught in the middle Co-ordination between fiscal and monetary policy already appears to have stepped up a gear since the new Government took office, with Bank of England Governor Mervyn King endorsing the Government’s... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Election needn’t put the UK in the Greek camp The fact that a hung parliament was widely expected helped to dampen the impact on markets. But the key question now is whether the election result will prompt markets to start to put the UK in the... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parties leave us none the wiser on spending cuts The Government is going into the election against a fairly favourable backdrop of an expanding economy, a falling claimant count and rising house prices. So it may be disappointed that this economic... 3rd May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don’t be fooled by the better fiscal news Last week’s public finances figures for March, revealing a £3bn undershoot of the Chancellor’s forecast for public borrowing in 2009-10, may have raised hopes that the beneficial effects on the public... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
