UK Economics Weekly Markets get over-excited by labour market news Market rate expectations rose further last week following some positive unemployment figures and the news that the Monetary Policy Committee was not unanimous in supporting forward guidance in the... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rates to stay on hold for three years (probably) The MPC took a bold step with its forward guidance on interest rates last week, although the various “knockouts” left some wondering whether it created more confusion than it cleared up. Indeed, the... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Catching up again? While the recovery across the pond may have softened, momentum in the UK economy seems to be building. The extent to which the UK can keep this up will be shaped by what we learn in this Wednesday’s... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the euphoria spur on the recovery? The succession of sporting achievements, the sizzling summer and the Royal baby have supposedly lifted British spirits and fostered hopes that this improved sentiment will give an extra boost to the... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC changes policy mix, not direction The main message from last week’s minutes of the latest MPC meeting was not so much a reduction in the Committee’s appetite for more stimulus, but rather a change of view on how to enact it. Meanwhile... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling back in the spotlight Sterling hit the headlines again last week as it weakened further against the dollar and euro. Meanwhile, last week’s slightly weaker economic data suggested that GDP growth in Q2 might not surge as... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fading price pressures bolster case for stimulus The list of indicators signalling that the recovery is gaining momentum continued to get longer last week. However, the recent news on the inflation outlook – which has perhaps gone relatively... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Reasons mount for Carney to act swiftly A number of developments last week supported our view that Mr Carney will need to give the economy more help. He might even hit the ground running by announcing something at his first meeting this... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in gilt yields supports case for more QE With gilt yields now at their highest level since early 2012, the growing expectation that the Fed will taper its asset purchases could boost the chances of the MPC expanding its own purchases. 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in rate expectations boosts case for guidance The recent rise in market rate expectations highlights why Mark Carney might be keen to give reassurance that interest rates will not rise, even as the economy starts to pick up. 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery looking more like the real thing The positive run of economic news continued last week. Meanwhile, the Labour party’s shift in strategy underlines that fiscal consolidation will remain a defining feature beyond the election. 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rise in consumer confidence a turning-point? On the face of it, the rise in the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence in May brought further evidence that the economy has finally turned a corner. But even if confidence is now on the up, it may... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by April's inflation figures April’s sharp fall in CPI inflation led some to quickly conclude that this would be enough on its own to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into action. But a closer look at the figures... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Still plenty of scope for Carney to act In contrast to his usual gloominess at Inflation Report press conferences, Mervyn King bowed out of his final forecasting round on a much chirpier note than usual. But there is still a significant... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report may not impede further action Recent Inflation Reports have presented a pretty gloomy picture as far as the prospects for inflation are concerned. But May’s Report, to be published on Wednesday, should break this bad run. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Selling the banks would be no quick fix Rumours that the Government is gearing up to sell its stakes in the nationalised banks have hit the headlines. Some think that even a loss-making sale would support the Government’s chances of re... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
