UK Economics Weekly Rate hike in 2016 still likely despite slide in oil prices The unexpected slide in oil prices last week, to a six-year low of about $40pb, has left most forecasters once again pulling down their CPI inflation projections and has led some to speculate that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are UK bonds in for a choppy ride? There was much talk about the emerging “transatlantic divergence” last week. It now looks odds on that the US Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates later this month. Meanwhile, on the other... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Definitely not the end of austerity The Chancellor’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) allowed him to do everything he wanted in last week’s Spending Review and Autumn Statement – and more. Indeed, it is... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to rise more gradually in the UK than US The release of the UK and US inflation figures last week provided a reminder of why the MPC is likely to raise interest rates later than the US Fed. Inflation rates in both economies will pick up... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy could be helped by quick EU referendum We have known for some time the Government’s broad objectives for its negotiations with the EU and David Cameron’s letter last week to the European Council President Donald Tusk contained little... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Closer than it looks Downgrades to the Bank of England’s inflation projections in its Inflation Report last week were widely anticipated. Nonetheless, sterling’s tumble against the dollar and the euro after its release... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mr Osborne’s tax credit options Mr Osborne has various options to soften the impact of his cuts in tax credits, but all of them will cost him some money. Admittedly, this might “only” be a couple of billion for a couple of years... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Both pros and cons of leaving EU often overstated Although he said that it would be “a bit of a yawner”, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech on the UK’s membership of the EU contained something for both the pro- and anti-Europe camps to... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne come to regret his “fiscal charter”? Chancellor George Osborne was last week able to pass his new “fiscal charter”, forcing current and future governments to run a budget surplus during “normal times”. But the Chancellor may come to... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? A raft of gloomy survey data has fuelled fears that the UK’s economic recovery is running out of steam. There are some indications that quarterly GDP growth will moderate from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% or so... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly (Almost) all good news on the economy The economic picture is a little more nuanced than the seemingly relentless barrage of good news last week might have suggested. But the upshot is that we are still feeling pretty good about the... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Public finances should come good again soon Last week’s public finance figures suggested that deficit reduction has hit a roadblock. But the path of reduction has hardly been a completely smooth one so far. And the strong economic recovery in... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK should weather rising US interest rates well Even if the US Fed holds fire this week, US interest rates will be rising soon – and, in our view, quicker than markets expect. Turning points in UK monetary policy are often close to US ones. But... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about “Corbynomics”? If the polls are anything to go by, left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn will be elected as the next leader of the Labour Party on 12 th of September. This has prompted a heated debate over his economic... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More “good” deflation to boost consumer recovery Turbulence in financial markets once again overshadowed some positive economic developments on the domestic front last week. Indeed, Q2’s second estimate of GDP showed that the recovery in household... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
