UK Economics Weekly Brexit fears not weighing heavily on bank lending It is generally accepted that the main channel through which uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum will hit the economy is the negative impact on business investment. But on the whole, last week’s... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying are the falls in the activity surveys? Last week’s Markit/CIPS surveys pointed to a slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter, a picture supported by other activity surveys. But while the economy seems to be going through a slightly... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery getting back on track? The increase in quarterly GDP growth from 0.4% in Q3 to an around-trend rate of 0.6% in Q4 suggests that the recovery has regained some momentum. There are factors that should stop growth from... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More than just red flag waving from the FPC soon? The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) had a lot on its plate at last week’s meeting, with concerns about the impact of a Brexit only adding to the long list of existing risks to financial stability... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Osborne’s big squeeze really happen? Large parts of the Budget were clearly aimed solely at repairing the damage that the OBR’s new economic forecasts did to the Chancellor’s chances of meeting his fiscal target. That said, there is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal policy won’t provide support for the recovery The two main events this week – the Budget and MPC decision – will highlight the divergence between monetary and fiscal policy stances. With Bank Rate likely to be held at 0.5%, marking seven full... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take referendum propaganda with a pinch of salt Capital Economics does not have a strong axe to grind either way on the EU question. But we do feel that many of the arguments put forward on both sides are exaggerated – including those from the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s fall is nothing to fear Brexit unsurprisingly dominated the news again last week, especially its continued downward impact on sterling. As the referendum nears, we expect to see further falls in the pound. However, this... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Banking sector fears overdone One of the main areas of concern in markets in recent weeks has been the banking sector, both in the UK and overseas. However, we do not think that this pessimism about the UK’s banking sector is... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could the market storm blow the recovery off course? The further bout of financial market turmoil last week has raised fears that a sharp slowdown in the UK economy may be on the horizon. But the strength of the labour market, loose monetary policy and... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly EU referendum will delay rate hike, but not until 2018 The draft EU deal published last week has left the “Brexit” referendum looking likely to occur in June this year. What’s more, on the basis of the latest polls, it looks set to be a close vote. That... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rebalancing remains a distant prospect The composition of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 highlighted the lack of progress in rebalancing the economy. And we think the near-term prospects aren’t much better. But we do believe the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate rise this year still quite possible At the end of another tumultuous week in global financial markets, one of the most notable developments in the UK has been the further drop in interest rate expectations. But even after the shaky... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Not a very happy new year While the start of the new year has not been a particularly happy period, we think that concerns related to growth in China and subsequent market turmoil have been overdone. This turmoil would appear... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the disappointing news keep on coming? Last year ended with some fairly downbeat news on public borrowing and economic growth. But has the news flow since then been any more encouraging? So far the answer is not particularly. The start of... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2016: Surviving rate rises and an EU referendum After a slight wobble in the autumn, the UK economy seems to be ending 2015 on a more positive note. Growth this year is on course to have been about 2.4%. While weaker than 2014’s 2.9% growth rate... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
