UK Economics Weekly What does the Chancellor have up his sleeve? While the rumour mill has been fairly silent, the Chancellor is surely piecing together a small package of measures for his Autumn Statement to provide a pre-election boost to households’ finances. A... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could good deflation turn bad? Recent outright falls in commodity, import, producer and retail prices should provide a timely fillip to households and firms. However, with CPI inflation already well below target and set to fall to... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are the MPC’s new forecasts plausible? There have been suggestions in some quarters that the MPC’s new forecasts for strong growth, low unemployment and below-target inflation push the envelope of plausibility. However, the MPC is... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report set to reaffirm low rate outlook This week’s Inflation Report should confirm that the majority view on the Monetary Policy Committee remains that the economy is still some months away from justifying higher interest rates. Indeed... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling housing market won’t freeze the recovery Given the perceived boost to the economic recovery from strong gains in house prices over the past year or so, signs that the housing market is beginning to cool may raise concerns that the overall... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Consumers to remain upbeat despite asset price falls On the face of it, the recent sharp fall in equity prices and slowdown in the housing market suggest that the significant improvement in consumer confidence seen over the last year might be reversed... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real wages to provide timely support to the recovery Last week saw global financial markets return to panic mode, as concerns about the faltering euro-zone economy, heightened geopolitical risks, the spread of the Ebola virus and falling oil prices came... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the FTSE’s fall signalling a slowdown? On the face of it, the sharp decline in the FTSE 100 to its lowest level since last October appears to be a bad portent regarding the sustainability of the UK economy’s recovery. However, the FTSE’s... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? The sharp decline in the manufacturing PMI and smaller fall in the services PMI in September has led some to question the durability of the UK’s economic recovery. There is little reason to be worried... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take fiscal pledges with a pinch of salt With the party conference season in full swing, attention has turned from the Scottish referendum to the main parties’ plans for fiscal policy in the next parliament. But while their new pledges may... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Post-referendum relief rally falls flat The absence of a major relief rally following Scotland’s rejection of independence confirms that the markets only ever placed a very small probability on a ‘Yes’ vote. Although interest rate... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will sterling take the low road? While the recent fall in the pound against the US dollar has been put down to the heighteneduncertainty over the Scottish referendum result, most of the drop has actually been driven by a shiftin... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP overhaul merely tweaks the big picture Last week’s revised GDP estimates were seemingly all things to all men, supporting political parties’ views and every economist’s forecasts for interest rates and fiscal policy. In reality, the new... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK better placed to weather another euro-zone storm With euro-zone activity indicators having softened over recent months, it looks as if the currency bloc’s nascent recovery is already losing steam. Without bolder policy action from the ECB, the risks... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the rebels muster a majority soon? Past experience suggests that the emergence of a minority vote to raise interest rates at August’s MPC meeting is unlikely to have brought the first rate hike any closer. For a start, minority votes... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deciphering the pay puzzle Last week’s Inflation Report saw the MPC place more emphasis on earnings at a time whenindicators are giving radically different signals regarding its current – let alone likely future –strength... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
