UK Economics Weekly Is a fiscal crisis quietly brewing? On the face of it, last week’s fiscal figures suggested that the public finances are still not benefitingfrom the recovery’s strength. Indeed, if the trend in the first three months of this fiscal... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the worst over for pay? Last week’s labour market data was something of a curate’s egg. Although a further fall in theunemployment rate indicated that the jobs recovery has continued at a rapid pace, the earningsfigures... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the stronger pound stay the MPC’s hand? Sterling’s further appreciation has increased the chances that CPI inflation drops even further below the MPC’s 2% target over the next year or so. Not only will sterling’s rise have a direct impact... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the construction recovery continue to build? Given its small weight in overall output, the construction sector is often overlooked. But last week’s survey data provided encouraging evidence that the sector is helping to build a more balanced... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the FPC done enough? None of the measures announced by the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) last week seem likely to sap the recovery in house prices of its current momentum or prevent the overall level of household debt... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Maradona Carney turns full circle The trickle of warnings of a not-too-distant policy tightening from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) turned into something more closely resembling a flood last week. Ultimately, however, it is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still likely to tread cautiously Mark Carney’s statement in his Mansion House speech on Thursday evening that “the first rise in interest rates …could happen sooner than markets currently expect” looked like a pretty plain signal... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What has the ECB done for us? On the face of it, the new policy measures unveiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) last week should have positive effects on the UK’s principal trading partner and hence on the UK’s own growth... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are gilts priced for a slowdown? On the face of it, the steady fall in gilt yields this year suggests that markets might be expecting the economic recovery to lose some momentum soon or that safe-haven demand from overseas might have... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will investment keep punching above its weight? Last week’s release of the expenditure breakdown of Q1 GDP confirmed that an upturn in business investment has turbocharged the UK’s economic recovery. And looking ahead, there’s every reason to... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC's view on slack still plausible? May’s Bank of England Inflation Report proved to be a blow for those predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would signal its intention to raise interest rates soon. The MPC stood by its... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation and the FPC should keep rates down The main risks to our view that low inflation will keep interest rates on hold for longer than markets expect stem from the MPC’s increased focus on spare capacity under phase two of its forward... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing bears shouldn't scare Goldilocks away Last week’s data provided further evidence that the UK economy is currently enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ recovery. Admittedly, there are concerns that an overheating housing market could bring the bears... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling's strength should not derail the recovery While this week’s GDP figures for the first quarter look set to confirm that the economic recovery has gained further momentum, one potential threat to the sustainability of the recovery is the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real pay finally turns the corner Last week’s labour market figures brought the long-awaited news that pay growth has finally begun to exceed inflation. Granted, real earnings are still 10% below their pre-recession peak and signs... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The makers march on Last week’s official industrial production figures provided an encouraging sign that the sector’s recovery may have gathered pace in the first quarter. Indeed, even if production only held steady in... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
