UK Economics Weekly Consumers to remain confident despite equity rout The FTSE 100’s sharp decline last week, leaving it 10% below its peak in April, certainly won’t lift consumers’ spirits but it is unlikely to be large enough to dissuade them from continuing to spend... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A storm in a China teacup? Headlines have recently been captured by last week’s shock move by the People’s Bank of China to lower the daily reference rate for the renminbi. However, we doubt that this will have much bearing on... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still too cautious on productivity Once again, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised many by the extent of its downward revision to the inflation forecast in its latest Inflation Report and the Governor poured cold water on... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another milestone for the economic recovery Last week’s GDP figures indicated that the economic recovery has passed another milestone, namely that GDP per capita is now back to its pre-crisis levels. Admittedly, it has taken an extremely long... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger GDP figures won’t rush the MPC The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Tuesday looks set to show that the economic recovery has re-gained some momentum. However, the recent strength of the survey data has not been borne out fully in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying is the rise in unemployment? The surprise rise in unemployment revealed by last week’s labour market figures might be just a blip. However, the fact that both main measures of unemployment rose makes it harder to dismiss this as... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Osborne Identity: Pragmatist not ideologue Despite being unshackled from the constraints of the coalition, the Chancellor chose pragmatism over ideological fervour in last week’s Budget. As well as easing the pace at which borrowing is set to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget to leave economy still facing big fiscal squeeze As far as the UK is concerned, the main point to take from last week’s Greek developments wasthat there are still limited signs of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. So far, so not-too-badthen... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hawks ruffling feathers but rate hike still a way off Given the air of uncertainty hanging over Europe, it is perhaps surprising that markets haverecently brought forwards their expectations for the timing of the first hike in official interest ratesin... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks highlight need for MPC to nurture recovery The odds of Greece defaulting on its debt, and possibly exiting the euro-zone too, seem to be growing by the day. However, as we have stressed before, the UK’s direct economic and financial exposures... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What scope does Osborne have to smooth the cuts? Given the rollercoaster profile for government spending inherited from the coalition, there is clear scope for the Government to smooth the fiscal consolidation more evenly over this parliament... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Encouraging signs beneath Q1 weakness Last week ended with a general sense of relative pessimism, following the lack of the expected upgrade to Q1’s GDP figure and the news that net trade was a big drag on the economy. But we are not too... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is that it for deflation? News that the UK economy finally experienced deflation in April is to be cheered – it is emphatically of the ‘good’ sort, driven by cheaper commodity prices rather than weaker demand. Looking ahead... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market ‘rout’ poses little threat to economy The recent sharp rise in government bond yields, most pronounced at the long end, has fuelled concerns about its potential adverse impact on the economy. After all, since it has not been accompanied... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tory majority brings more clarity to fiscal outlook The Tories’ outright majority indicates that the economy is clearly heading for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze next year. This will represent only the first step towards their... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
