UK Economics Weekly MPC still likely to tread cautiously Mark Carney’s statement in his Mansion House speech on Thursday evening that “the first rise in interest rates …could happen sooner than markets currently expect” looked like a pretty plain signal... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What has the ECB done for us? On the face of it, the new policy measures unveiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) last week should have positive effects on the UK’s principal trading partner and hence on the UK’s own growth... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are gilts priced for a slowdown? On the face of it, the steady fall in gilt yields this year suggests that markets might be expecting the economic recovery to lose some momentum soon or that safe-haven demand from overseas might have... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will investment keep punching above its weight? Last week’s release of the expenditure breakdown of Q1 GDP confirmed that an upturn in business investment has turbocharged the UK’s economic recovery. And looking ahead, there’s every reason to... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC's view on slack still plausible? May’s Bank of England Inflation Report proved to be a blow for those predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would signal its intention to raise interest rates soon. The MPC stood by its... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation and the FPC should keep rates down The main risks to our view that low inflation will keep interest rates on hold for longer than markets expect stem from the MPC’s increased focus on spare capacity under phase two of its forward... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing bears shouldn't scare Goldilocks away Last week’s data provided further evidence that the UK economy is currently enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ recovery. Admittedly, there are concerns that an overheating housing market could bring the bears... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling's strength should not derail the recovery While this week’s GDP figures for the first quarter look set to confirm that the economic recovery has gained further momentum, one potential threat to the sustainability of the recovery is the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real pay finally turns the corner Last week’s labour market figures brought the long-awaited news that pay growth has finally begun to exceed inflation. Granted, real earnings are still 10% below their pre-recession peak and signs... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The makers march on Last week’s official industrial production figures provided an encouraging sign that the sector’s recovery may have gathered pace in the first quarter. Indeed, even if production only held steady in... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Productivity cloud should lift in time Figures released last week confirmed that the weakness of productivity growth continues to hang like a cloud of Saharan dust over the medium-term outlook for the economy. Not only has productivity... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation still on track for 1% The further fall in CPI inflation in February is unlikely to be the last this year. Past movements in global commodity prices, recent announcements by energy suppliers and the emergence of a... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Strong growth should finance Mr Osborne's gambles It has become increasingly clear that the Chancellor’s Budget was not quite as fully-financed as it first appeared. Many of the permanent giveaways were paid for by takeaways which will provide only a... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne try to buy credit for the recovery? The Government’s failure thus far to gain credit for the recovery might point to a sizeable net giveaway in Wednesday’s Budget. But Mr Osborne’s room for manoeuvre is limited and, with a risk that... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market force the MPC to act? Last week’s news that house prices surged in February will have done little to dispel concerns that record low interest rates are contributing to the emergence of a renewed house price bubble... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have companies finally joined the party? Last week’s GDP figures showing that investment rose sharply in Q4 should ease concerns that the economic recovery is too dependent on an unsustainable consumer spending splurge. And there are several... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
