UK Economics Weekly Recovery should endure political uncertainty With a hung parliament appearing overwhelming likely, Thursday’s general election looks set to be followed by days, if not weeks, of political horse-trading, and whatever government is finally formed... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks underline need for MPC caution Although all eyes are on the general election due to take place in less than a fortnight, developments across the Channel have the potential to be just as important an influence on the UK economy in... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does the economic outlook hinge on who wins? The fiscal rules proposed by the Conservative and Labour parties in their manifestos last week suggested that the latter could borrow an extra £130bn more than the Tories over the next five years if... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we trust the upbeat business surveys? The last few weeks have seen mixed messages on the health of the economic recovery, with the upbeat tone of the business surveys contrasting with initial official estimates of output in the first two... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Current account cloud casting shadow over recovery Last week’s National Accounts showed that the economic recovery had plenty of wind in its sails in the fourth quarter. However, there remains one cloud hanging over the recovery which has yet to be... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Zero inflation doesn’t boost case for rate cut For a country that has spent much of its recent history battling high inflation, last week’s data showing that inflation hit zero in February was something of a watershed moment. However, we don’t... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is there light at the end of the austerity tunnel? In a Budget devoid of significant pre-election giveaways or major revisions to the economic forecasts, the most important changes were to the spending plans. While the Chancellor stuck to his overall... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Without tighter rules, migration to stay strong We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a recovery in exports finally underway? One feature that the recovery has been lacking for a long time is a pick-up in exports. But last week’s GDP figures offered some encouragement that the much-anticipated rebalancing of the economy is... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tightening job market should see off deflation threat The latest inflation figures, showing CPI inflation easing to a record low of 0.3% in January, naturally took up most of the column inches last week. It was therefore easy to overlook the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cut in Bank Rate returns to policy toolkit With CPI inflation on the verge of turning negative, last week’s Inflation Report saw Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discuss his available policy options should deflation show signs of becoming... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Carney faces balancing act with Inflation Report Deflation will be the word on everyone’s lips at this week’s Inflation Report press conference. Mr Carney will need to emphasise that the Committee is alert to the risk that deflation becomes... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing market to revive just in time for the election While last week’s GDP figures confirmed that the recovery lost momentum at the tail end of 2014, we expect it to regain pace soon. One helpful development in that respect should be an end to the mini... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone QE largely positive for UK Anything that kick-starts the UK’s biggest trading partner clearly has the potential to be good news this side of the Channel too. That said, the main channel through which we think QE will work in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation should be briefer in the UK than overseas With E.On’s cut in gas prices probably kicking off a more widespread round of utility price cuts and oil prices falling even further last week, a brief dip into outright deflation now seems more... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
