UK Economics Weekly Productivity cloud should lift in time Figures released last week confirmed that the weakness of productivity growth continues to hang like a cloud of Saharan dust over the medium-term outlook for the economy. Not only has productivity... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation still on track for 1% The further fall in CPI inflation in February is unlikely to be the last this year. Past movements in global commodity prices, recent announcements by energy suppliers and the emergence of a... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Strong growth should finance Mr Osborne's gambles It has become increasingly clear that the Chancellor’s Budget was not quite as fully-financed as it first appeared. Many of the permanent giveaways were paid for by takeaways which will provide only a... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne try to buy credit for the recovery? The Government’s failure thus far to gain credit for the recovery might point to a sizeable net giveaway in Wednesday’s Budget. But Mr Osborne’s room for manoeuvre is limited and, with a risk that... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market force the MPC to act? Last week’s news that house prices surged in February will have done little to dispel concerns that record low interest rates are contributing to the emergence of a renewed house price bubble... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have companies finally joined the party? Last week’s GDP figures showing that investment rose sharply in Q4 should ease concerns that the economic recovery is too dependent on an unsustainable consumer spending splurge. And there are several... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can the recovery withstand the stronger pound? As things stand, sterling’s recent appreciation should not take too much of the wind out of the recovery’s sails. Exporters have already shown some willingness to accept tighter margins in order to... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation should ease output gap dangers The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce phase two of forward guidance does not guarantee that interest rates will stay on hold for a long time yet... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly All change again for the Inflation Report? The likely change to the MPC’s forward guidance alongside next week’s February Inflation Report could result in more changes to the contents of the Report. But the Committee’s inflation forecast... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly News on productivity may brighten this year Against a positive economic backdrop in recent quarters, one blot on the UK economy’s copybook has been the continuing dismal performance of productivity. Indeed, both output per worker and output per... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell forward guidance? The combination of November’s further sharp fall in unemployment and hints from the Governor of the Bank of England suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee’s policy of formal, state-contingent... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation set to sink to a ten year low in 2014 Having finally fallen to the 2% target in December, there are increasingly clear signs that CPI inflation is on course to fall well below it this year. In particular, administered, food and consumer... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will car sales shift the recovery up a gear? With employment, real incomes and consumer confidence all likely to rise this year, the economic environment appears to be conducive to further growth in car sales in 2014. That said, some of the... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did 2013 end with a whimper or a bang? While the strength of the economic recovery surprised in 2013, the economy may have seen a softer end to the year. For some retailers, the Christmas period looks like being a bit of a washout, both... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the good news keep coming in 2014? We expect the broadening out of the recovery from consumer spending to the rest of the economy to be one of next year’s main developments. Other key things to watch out for in 2014 include a modest... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is wage growth about to pick up? Recent survey evidence suggests that wage growth may finally be starting to recover. The latest surveys from both the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and the British Chambers of... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
