UK Economics Weekly How far will inflation rise? Although the slide in the trade-weighted sterling index of a little below 10% since the referendum result will give exporters a much-needed boost to their competitiveness, it will also lift the prices... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What will the policymakers do? Following the vote for a Brexit, a considerable amount of uncertainty hangs over the UK, which is likely to weigh on activity in the short term. However, we think that the near-term hit to the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit would still shock markets, despite shift in polls While the main talking point in recent days has been “Leave” taking the lead in EU referendum opinion polls, it appears that markets are still far from fully pricing in a Brexit. This suggests that... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Record-low gilt yields reflect global factors Last week’s fall in gilt yields to a record low probably has more to do with global concerns than a rise in the probability of a Brexit . Once the turmoil surrounding the immediate aftermath of the EU... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing market to cool regardless of Brexit vote While concerns about the overvaluation of UK housing are nothing new, recent signs that the market is cooling has led some to proclaim that we are on the cusp of a house price crash. Although we don’t... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Even a small Brexit hit could leave fiscal rules broken Relatively small overshoots in public sector borrowing, like that shown in last week’s figures, could soon pale into insignificance if the UK were to vote to leave the EU next month. Indeed, the... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Consumer back on form Last week broke the recent run of disappointing news and went some way to calming fears that the economy is slowing abruptly. Perhaps most reassuring was the pick-up in retail sales growth, given that... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How will the MPC respond to the EU referendum? The MPC’s attempt to base its forecasts on the UK remaining in the EU suggests that it believes trade-weighted sterling will rise by around 5% on a vote to stay. But it also implies that it doesn’t... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Resilient sentiment suggests economic gloom overdone The economy seems to be on a worrying downward trajectory. But if activity were about to fall off a cliff, we might expect forward-looking measures of confidence and expectations to be tumbling and... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of Q1 slowdown is due to Brexit fears? Softening activity indicators and the moderation in quarterly GDP growth from 0.6% in Q4 to 0.4% in Q1 have fuelled a number of warnings, notably from Chancellor George Osborne and the OECD, that the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Both sides overstate effect of Brexit on trade At the heart of most of last week’s wealth of Brexit-related publications and comments was the issue of what will happen to trade if the UK votes to leave. As with pretty much all aspects of the... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit fears not weighing heavily on bank lending It is generally accepted that the main channel through which uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum will hit the economy is the negative impact on business investment. But on the whole, last week’s... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying are the falls in the activity surveys? Last week’s Markit/CIPS surveys pointed to a slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter, a picture supported by other activity surveys. But while the economy seems to be going through a slightly... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery getting back on track? The increase in quarterly GDP growth from 0.4% in Q3 to an around-trend rate of 0.6% in Q4 suggests that the recovery has regained some momentum. There are factors that should stop growth from... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More than just red flag waving from the FPC soon? The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) had a lot on its plate at last week’s meeting, with concerns about the impact of a Brexit only adding to the long list of existing risks to financial stability... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Osborne’s big squeeze really happen? Large parts of the Budget were clearly aimed solely at repairing the damage that the OBR’s new economic forecasts did to the Chancellor’s chances of meeting his fiscal target. That said, there is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
