What does the Chancellor have up his sleeve?

While the rumour mill has been fairly silent, the Chancellor is surely piecing together a small package of measures for his Autumn Statement to provide a pre-election boost to households’ finances. A rise in the threshold for the 3% stamp duty rate and – if he can get his coalition partners to agree – the threshold for inheritance tax would fit the bill of being popular, swift and inexpensive.

Meanwhile, although some commentators have argued that last week’s Q3 GDP figures suggest that the UK’s economic recovery is too dependent on a splurge in consumer spending, we think these concerns are largely overblown. Spending growth looks more sustainable now than it did a year ago, and the fall in business investment should prove to be just a blip.