We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and the end of transitional limits on migrants from Bulgaria and Romania.
Growth in the euro-zone economy is likely to remain fairly anaemic for a while yet, while the UK economy should continue to recover quite strongly. And the EU is still expanding, providing an ever increasing supply of new migrants able to move freely within Europe. Accordingly, migration is only likely to slow if whoever wins May’s general election takes a significantly tougher stance.
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