How would the US cope with a euro break-up?

The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5 percentage points lower both this year and next than otherwise. The worst case scenario of a disorderly collapse of the single currency and multiple sovereign debt defaults, however, could trigger another credit crisis that tips the US economy back into recession.