June data mixed, but Q2 GDP growth around 2.8%

After a strong May, economic activity was more mixed in June. Nevertheless, it was still solid enough to re-affirm our view that the economy rebounded robustly in the second quarter. Even after the slight decline in June retail sales, our calculations suggest that second-quarter real consumption increased by 2.7% annualized. Moreover, despite another decline in mining investment, the construction spending data point to a very strong surge in investment in other types of commercial buildings. On balance, we anticipate that second-quarter GDP growth was 2.8% annualised.