The upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (17th December), should provide a clear signal whether our non-consensus call that the Fed will hike rates as soon as next March is still plausible. If the Fed maintains its language that rates won't rise for a "considerable time", or Fed officials lower their estimates of either the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and/or their projections for core inflation, then we will throw in the towel.
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