Halifax House Prices (Sep.)

The large rise in the Halifax house price index in September suggests that we are right to think that robust demand and limited inventory will mean that prices record further gains after the stamp duty holiday ends.
Andrew Wishart Property Economist
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UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Nov.)

House prices recorded another above-consensus gain in November as strong buyer demand bid prices up further. There is little sign of that dynamic changing anytime soon, so we expect the consensus forecast for 2022 to continue to be revised up closer to our own view.

1 December 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lending (Oct.)

Mortgage approvals remained robust in October after the end of the stamp duty holiday, only easing back into line with their pre-pandemic average. With demand strong, we suspect that mortgage approvals will move back above pre-virus levels in 2022, although limited inventory could be a constraint.

29 November 2021

UK Housing Market Update

300,000 supply target remains out of reach

The most comprehensive statistics on housing supply confirmed that the pause in construction in Q2 2020 caused completions of new homes to drop back. Housebuilding activity has since recovered but materials shortages, the end of the Help to Buy Equity Loan scheme, and a cooling market suggest that the high water mark for new housing supply has already been and gone.

29 November 2021

More from Andrew Wishart

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep.)

The further drop in the construction PMI in September suggested that the recovery in construction has faltered amid a severe lack of materials and staff, spiralling costs, and softening demand.

6 October 2021

UK Housing Market Update

Modest rate hikes won’t prevent house price gains

We doubt that a larger rise in Bank Rate over the next two years than we previously expected will put much upward pressure on mortgage rates. Low interest rates and increased spending on housing costs will continue to provide a supportive environment for house price valuations. So we retain our above-consensus view that house prices will rise by a further 5% in 2022.

1 October 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Sep.)

The only small gain in house prices in September suggests that house price growth slowed as the stamp duty holiday was withdrawn. But with inventory limited and demand resilient, we suspect that house price growth will cool gradually rather than collapse.

30 September 2021
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