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Halifax House Prices (Jun.)

While we would be wary of reading too much into the small decline in house prices in June reported by Halifax, timely measures of house prices are consistent in pointing to a moderation in house price growth.
Andrew Wishart Property Economist
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UK Housing Market Update

Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move

We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’ financial firepower. If left in place, it could have led to a far larger house price fall than the 5% drop we forecast.

20 June 2022

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Rising mortgage rates begin to take their toll

The rise in mortgage rates from a low of 1.5% last November to 1.8% in April is beginning to weigh on home purchase demand, with the new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS survey dropping into negative territory in May. Supply is also improving according to the survey, redressing the imbalance between strong demand and limited supply that has pushed up prices over the last two years. Indeed, the survey is now consistent with house price growth grinding to a halt by the end of the year. And given we expect mortgage rates to continue to increase to over 3.5% by mid-2023 as lenders rebuild their margins, we remain content with our view that house prices will fall by 3% next year.

20 June 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 22)

The detailed quarterly mortgage lending data from the Bank of England confirmed that the squeeze on lenders margins intensified at the start of the year, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue to rise quickly. But there has been no loosening in credit standards, reducing the chances of financial distress as the economy and the housing market cool.

14 June 2022

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UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.)

Despite a further deterioration in the availability of building materials, construction output rose at the fastest pace since 1997 in June. That suggests output in the sector is now well above pre-virus levels.

6 July 2021

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Demand shifts towards outer London

London house prices have underperformed the national average over the past year as the pandemic has led to a shift in demand away from inner cities. Arguably London was due a period of weaker price growth even before the pandemic hit, following the outperformance of the capital in the 2010s. That said, price falls have been focused in the most central boroughs, while the best performing outer boroughs have seen price rises akin to the national average.

2 July 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lending (May)

The tick up in mortgage approvals for house purchase in May left them 33% above pre-virus norms, and timely indicators suggest that mortgage lending will remain robust despite the looming end of the stamp duty holiday.

Does the end of the holiday mean end of the boom? (1200 BST today, Tuesday 29th June): Join Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell and Andrew Wishart, the head of our UK Housing Service, for this 20 minute Drop-In session. Register here.

29 June 2021
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