The second lockdown will probably reduce the level of GDP in November by about 8.0% m/m. That would mean GDP in November would be about 15.5% below February’s level and might not regain its pre-crisis level until mid-2023. And given the gloomy economic outlook, we are confident that the £150bn of QE the MPC announced will announce at least another £100bn of QE over the next year.
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