Our central scenario envisages a smooth departure from the EU on 29th March 2019. But that outcome is far from certain. And although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no deal” Brexit on the economy are probably overdone, there is little doubt that a “no deal” Brexit could deal a significant blow to GDP next year. All eyes will now be on the EU negotiations – which resume on Thursday next week – for any sign of progress.
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