UK Commercial Property
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South East office rents still have further to fall

Although we expect the economic outlook will continue to improve, we think that South East office rents will still edge lower this year. What’s more, we don’t expect much of a rebound in 2022, as a shift to remote working will continue to weigh on demand.
Prohad Khan Property Economist
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UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (Oct.)

A drop in repayments and rise in development activity resulted in positive net lending in October for the first time since March. Despite this turnaround, credit conditions will remain tight and uncertainty about the recovery will continue to weigh on lending in the near term.

29 November 2021

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.)

The resilience of the commercial property market has led to further upgrades to the IPF Consensus view for this year, albeit still below our forecast. Beyond this year, we are more downbeat about the outlook than the consensus given our expectation that work-from-home will have a more lasting impact on offices.

26 November 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

Are flexible offices making a comeback?

Over the last two years, serviced offices have seen more upheaval than most other real estate sectors. But there have been some encouraging signs over recent quarters and long-term trends may have moved in their favour, though we don’t expect improved fortunes for flex space will be enough to change the outlook for offices as a whole.

25 November 2021

More from Prohad Khan

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (May.)

After falling sharply in April, net lending rose in May. We think this can be explained by the extension of payment holidays rather than an increase in new loans. Further ahead, we expect a weak recovery in investment activity and, as the economic recovery gathers pace, we think banks will be less willing to grant further forbearance, so net lending will turn negative again.

29 June 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

Weak starts to limit construction after 2021

We think that delayed Central London office projects and new industrial starts will drive commercial construction output this year. But once the backlog of delayed projects has been exhausted, we think structural factors and high costs will deter developers from building new projects further out.

24 June 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

Can urban logistics fill the void in cities?

The acceleration of structural shifts is likely to result in some conversion of retail and to a lesser extent office space to urban logistics use. However, we think these conversions will be relatively limited given the significant shortfall in values between existing uses and industrial.

9 June 2021
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