With the Swedish economy flying, core inflation picking up, and inflation expectations back above target, the stage is surely set for a hawkish mea culpa at the Riksbank’s next policy announcement, on 10th February. We forecast a first rate hike in November, which is ahead of the economic consensus, but there is a rising chance that policymakers may opt to hike even sooner. The main data releases of note next week are the manufacturing PMIs for January, which may show tentative signs of easing supply constraints.
Euro-zone Drop-In: Why the ECB will be laying the groundwork for rate hikes in 2023. Join Andrew Kenningham and the Europe team for a discussion about their Q1 euro-zone Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, 1 Feb at 09:00 EST/14:00 GMT. Registration here.
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