Egypt’s headline inflation rate fell to a seven-month low of 4.1% y/y in April, leaving it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. We think the headline rate will pick up over the coming months, which will prompt policymakers to keep rates on hold until later in the year but, if inflation continues to undershoot expectations, the CBE may cut rates sooner than we currently expect.
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