The shift towards tighter monetary policy in the developed world combined with the drop in most commodity prices that we forecast over the next year or so threatens to expose key vulnerabilities in Latin America’s growth model. Our proprietary indicator of economic and financial risk – the CERI – does not suggest that a spate of crises is likely. But we do think that these vulnerabilities will ensure that growth in the region remains much weaker than most expect in 2013-15.
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