A delta variant-driven fifth wave has begun and cases are beginning to surge in Tokyo ahead of the Olympics opening ceremony next Friday. However, the variant is still overwhelmingly concentrated in Tokyo – where a state of emergency came into force on Monday – and vaccines are already beginning to have a positive impact. Only a small fraction of cases are now amongst the over-65s and nationwide deaths are at their lowest level since November. Indeed, we think the current outbreak should be manageable with the current restrictions in place and still expect PM Suga to be able to remove most domestic restrictions from late-Q3 once vaccine coverage is high.
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