EU vaccine passport won’t spark surge in tourism

The EU’s digital Covid certificate, which is being launched tomorrow, will have very little impact on European tourism this year. Non-essential travel is already possible, but most adults are not fully vaccinated and the Delta variant is making people and governments more cautious about the health implications of foreign holidays. We expect the tourism sector to remain very subdued this summer.
Jessica Hinds Europe Economist
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European Economics Weekly

ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end

Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain disruptions and rising input prices took the shine off the region’s recovery in September, GDP probably still grew very strongly in Q3. Next week brings the results of Germany’s federal election on Sunday and the start of probably lengthy coalition negotiations and the usual month-end raft of data.

24 September 2021

European Data Response

German Ifo Survey (September)

The third successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in September provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing steam, as supply chain difficulties persist and the surge in gas prices piles additional pressure on prices and production. That said, we still expect strong GDP growth in Q3, given the low base at the start of Q2.

24 September 2021

European Economics Update

Five questions and answers about Germany’s election

The federal election in Germany on Sunday will result in a new chancellor for the first time since 2005 and opinion polls suggest that the result will be extremely close with potentially months of coalition talks ahead. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the election.

23 September 2021

More from Jessica Hinds

European Data Response

Euro-zone Final PMIs (June)

The PMIs point to the euro-zone economy recovering strongly in June and provide evidence that price pressures are now spilling over into the services sector, even in the periphery. Nevertheless, we still think that higher inflation will prove temporary as shortages should ease in the second half of the year.

5 July 2021

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (May) & Final Mfg PMIs (Jun.)

The big fall in euro-zone unemployment in May highlights that the re-opening of many services sector firms in that month has boosted hiring activity. And with a strong recovery now underway, it now looks unlikely that unemployment will rise in the coming quarters.

1 July 2021

European Data Response

EC Survey (June)

Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply shortages, the big picture is still that the region’s economy was recovering strongly at the end of Q2.

29 June 2021
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