ECB could claim inflation is “transient” for years

The ECB is likely to argue that the increase in inflation to above its 2% target is “transient” even if it continues for much longer than currently expected. The key question is not how long inflation has been above target but whether it is expected to come back down within policymakers’ forecast horizons.
Andrew Kenningham Chief Europe Economist
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European Economics Update

Further thoughts on Italy’s presidential vote

Italy’s presidential election, which will begin next week, threatens to reignite political uncertainty that has been quiescent since Mario Draghi became prime minister last year. While we agree that losing Mr Draghi as prime minister would put the Recovery Plan at risk, there are some reasons for comfort. Drop-In (14:00 GMT, 26th Jan): UK Outlook -- More inflation, more interest rate hikes. Join our UK Economics team for a briefing on the 2022 outlook, including why we’re below consensus on growth but think the BoE will raise rates more than most expect. Register here.

21 January 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.)

January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly once the Omicron wave fades and restrictions are eased. Drop-In (14:00 GMT, 26th Jan): UK Outlook -- More inflation, more interest rate hikes. Join our UK Economics team for a briefing on the 2022 outlook, including why we’re below consensus on growth but think the BoE will raise rates more than most expect. Register here.

21 January 2022

European Economic Outlook

Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero

We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic path for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, more stable energy prices will cause headline inflation to come down sharply, but the lingering effects of the pandemic will prolong supply-chain problems and wage inflation is likely to rise. As a result core inflation will stay above the ECB’s 2% inflation target throughout 2022. And against that backdrop, the ECB will end its net asset purchases by December and prepare the ground to raise its deposit rate to zero by the end of 2023.

21 January 2022

More from Andrew Kenningham

European Economics Update

No major policy shift likely following German election

With the CDU/CSU and SDP having won very similar shares of the vote, the composition of Germany’s next government still hangs in the balance. An SDP-led coalition would probably pursue a slightly less restrictive fiscal policy, but any change of direction would be small.

27 September 2021

European Economics Update

ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose

The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term and expect the Bank to continue with asset purchases of over €50bn per month until the end of next year. What next for the ECB? We’re hosting a post-mortem after Thursday’s Governing Council meeting at 1100 ET to discuss its decision and our views on the euro-zone’s economic and inflation outlook. Register here.

9 September 2021

European Data Response

German Industrial Production (July)

The small increase in German industrial production in July merely reversed the fall in June, and left output well below normal. While the rest of the economy is now close to a full recovery, supply chain problems among manufacturing companies will keep GDP below its pre-pandemic level until Q4 at the earliest.

7 September 2021
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