Scandinavia & Switzerland: Less scope for yield falls

There was a material improvement in the Scandinavian and Swiss property markets over 2021. Prime office and industrial capital value growth accelerated. And while prime retail values still declined, this was at a slower pace than in 2020. Oslo was an exception, as rising bond yields restricted the pace of yield declines. That said, a decline in Oslo retail yields in Q4 meant that retail values rose for the first time since 2017. Looking to 2022, the economic backdrop will remain supportive, with GDP in the region already well-above its pre-pandemic level. However, we expect structural shifts to continue to cast a shadow over office and retail rental growth. And rising bond yields will limit the scope for further property yield declines, particularly in Oslo and Stockholm.