A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged

We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent supply disruption has been greater than we anticipated. To reflect this, we have raised our end-2019 oil price forecast, but still expect it to decline to $60 per barrel ($50 previously) from just under $75 today.