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Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region

The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the Baltic States most at risk from possible interruptions to gas supplies from Russia. A potential flood of Ukrainian refugees would clearly pose some challenges and costs, but may help to plug labour shortages and deal with long-term demographic headwinds.

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