While we expect Emerging Europe to suffer a much more severe recession than most other analysts, talk that its growth model is fundamentally broken seems premature. We think that the region could still grow at 5% per year over the medium-term but this depends on domestic policymakers accelerating reforms and the rest of the world avoiding a lurch towards protectionism. If either assumption is proved incorrect, the region’s economy may shrink outright for five years or more.
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