Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to constrain spending. And even if it does, this will only go part of the way to reversing the fiscal largesse of recent years. The big picture remains that the medium-term health of Russia’s public finances will depend on oil prices staying well above $100pb.
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