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Russia Activity Data (Oct.)

Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep virus restrictions tight for some time, we think the economy will lose steam in the coming months.
Liam Peach Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Governments collapse, Russia set to default

Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability also puts EU fund inflows and the ability to secure gas supplies at risk. Elsewhere, a 30-day grace period for Russia’s government to make interest payments on Eurobonds ends on Sunday. While Russia has signalled that it is willing to make the payments in rubles, this would be a breach of the contract and could mark Russia’s first default on foreign currency debt since the Bolshevik revolution.

24 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT: knock knock, anybody there?

High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00% today. Disorderly falls in the lira are a major risk, which would probably be met with capital controls rather than rate hikes.

23 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation broadening out

Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing their worst bout of inflation since the late-1990s as surging food and energy prices have added to strong core price pressures across a broad range of goods and services. Monetary tightening cycles are likely to continue with interest rates rising to 8% or so over the next few months and we think that rates will remain above neutral for several years. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  

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More from Liam Peach

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be sceptical that this strength will be sustained in the coming months.

1 December 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength

The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the very near term, we think that Israel’s macro fundamentals will support further appreciation over the next few years. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Europe Update to clients of our FX Markets service.

24 November 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Poland Activity Data (Oct.)

The latest data suggest that Poland’s economy started Q4 with solid momentum as industry and retail sales expanded strongly in October. We think that industry will continue to hold up well in the coming months, but headwinds from surging inflation and rising virus cases are likely to take a toll before long.

23 November 2021
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