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Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change

There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening monetary policy further. We expect growth to slow in the second half of the year, which should help to cool underlying price pressures, while a reopening of the international border should help to ease labour shortages. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead

The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next year.

10 August 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Philippines GDP (Q2)

Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand drag on the economy.

9 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

How much does Taiwan matter?

Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to renewed shortages in the automotive and electronics sectors and put further upward pressure on inflation. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Asia Economics Update to clients of our Global Economics Service.  

8 August 2022

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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Low inflation means BI is in little hurry to raise rates

Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged again today, and the relative weakness of inflation means any tightening cycle is unlikely to be aggressive. We are maintaining our view the central bank will raise interest rates by just 25bps this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

23 June 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

New rate forecasts following hawkish BSP comments

The central bank in the Philippines today raised its policy rate by another 25bp (to 2.5%), and signalled that further tightening was likely. However, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to the recovery mounting, we think the tightening cycle will be gradual. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

23 June 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Korea’s hot labour market, Sri Lanka’s tourism woes

The Korean labour market is continuing to heat up, increasing the chances that the central bank will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, a renewed slump in visitor arrivals to Sri Lanka will make it harder for the country to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves, and makes it even more important that the government agrees a deal with the IMF. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now

17 June 2022
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