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Bank of Korea facing a policy dilemma

We expect the Bank of Korea to continue raising interest rates next year, but the worsening near-term prospects for growth mean the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear cut.
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Pakistan: Further tightening needed, as IMF talks begin

High inflation and the fall in the currency were the two key factors behind the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to raise interest rates by a further 150bp today. More tightening looks inevitable, and much will depend on whether the government can agree terms with the IMF over the resumption of its US$6bn loan programme. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

23 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Asia late to tightening but won’t have to go far

Central banks in India, the Philippines and Malaysia have all raised interest rates for the first time this cycle in recent weeks, and we expect further hikes next week in Indonesia, Korea and Pakistan. But with inflation set to fall back in the second half of the year and growth likely to weaken, tightening cycles are unlikely to be aggressive. Our forecasts are generally more dovish than the consensus.
Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

20 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: central bank will tighten gradually

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) started raising interest rates today, but with inflation set to slow later in the year and the economic recovery likely to weaken, the tightening cycle is set to be gradual and relatively short. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

19 May 2022

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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Inflation exacerbates economic crisis in Sri Lanka

The economic situation in Sri Lanka is going from bad to worse, with a surge in inflation undermining the credibility of the central bank (CBSL) and making a debt default all the more likely.

3 December 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

How big a threat is Omicron to Asia?

Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is still room for fiscal and monetary policy to be loosened if prospects took a turn for the worse. Asian exporters could also benefit if a new wave of global infections led to increased demand for consumer goods.

2 December 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger

Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a renewed surge in COVID infections in Vietnam deserves close attention. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021
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