The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is possible, most Asian policymakers have the capacity to ensure growth does not slow too far. But there is a significant risk that break-up is messier and causes economic and financial damage well beyond Europe, in which case Asia’s more open economies would be hit hard.
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