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Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May)

Manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that cost pressures remain high, but there were more encouraging signs on the external front, with new export orders showing signs of stabilising. Meanwhile, Korean trade data point to an easing of the disruption from China.
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead

The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next year.

10 August 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Philippines GDP (Q2)

Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand drag on the economy.

9 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

How much does Taiwan matter?

Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to renewed shortages in the automotive and electronics sectors and put further upward pressure on inflation. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Asia Economics Update to clients of our Global Economics Service.  

8 August 2022

More from Gareth Leather

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Dovish Bank Indonesia in no hurry to raise rates

Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged today and the dovish tone from the press conference suggests the central bank is in no rush to tighten policy. We are maintaining our view the central bank will raise interest rates by just 25bps this year. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

24 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Asia late to tightening but won’t have to go far

Central banks in India, the Philippines and Malaysia have all raised interest rates for the first time this cycle in recent weeks, and we expect further hikes next week in Indonesia, Korea and Pakistan. But with inflation set to fall back in the second half of the year and growth likely to weaken, tightening cycles are unlikely to be aggressive. Our forecasts are generally more dovish than the consensus.
Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

20 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Asia to remain inflation outlier

Despite surging global food and fuel prices, inflation across most of Emerging Asia looks set to remain relatively low. This is the key reason why tightening cycles in the region will be much more gradual than elsewhere.

17 May 2022
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