We think US real yields are unlikely to stay this low

The yields of long-dated US Treasuries have edged down this week, and those of TIPS have dropped to a new record low, but we still expect both to recover over the next couple of years.
Jonathan Petersen Markets Economist
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Payrolls and the flattening Treasury yield curve

The ostensibly disappointing November US Employment Report released today has not dented expectations for near-term monetary tightening in the US at all, perhaps because of the growing signs this week that Fed officials have become more concerned about inflation. If policymakers are indeed determined to press ahead with tightening next year, even as the recoveries in the economy and labour market potentially slow, we could well see the Treasury yield curve flatten further.

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We see little upside for developed market corporate bonds

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Omicron & Powell present risks to our Treasury yield view

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The FOMC announcement may extend the dollar rally

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23 July 2021

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We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure

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21 July 2021

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Investor positioning may be one factor behind the fall in yields

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16 July 2021
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