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We think the peak in Treasury yields is still to come

We doubt that the 10-year Treasury yield has peaked in this cycle. Admittedly, it has fallen back markedly on net over the past couple of weeks; having briefly climbed above 3.20% earlier this month, it is now at around ~2.85%. But, it has risen ~5bp so far today and we suspect that it will climb a lot more over the next 12 months or so.
James Reilly Assistant Economist
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