The recent flattening of the US Treasury yield curve mainly reflects a renewed plunge in long-dated term premia, at least based on one set of estimates published by the Fed. Its “risk-neutral” counterpart has not followed suit, and the “terminal” policy rate implied by risk-neutral yields is not implausibly low.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services