Assessing the market implications of the outlook for US inflation

Although US consumer price inflation remained low at the end of last year, we expect it to rebound before long. (See US Key Data & Events.) As a result, we suspect that inflation compensation will continue to rise, pushing real yields and the dollar lower and supporting the rally in risky assets.
Adam Hoyes Assistant Economist
Continue reading

More from Capital Daily

Capital Daily

Inflation compensation, oil prices and the omicron variant

News of the “omicron” variant of the coronavirus may have hit both inflation compensation and oil prices recently, but we suspect the correlation between the two will be weaker over the next couple of years than it has been in the past.

29 November 2021

Capital Daily

How the new coronavirus variant is shaking up markets

It’s impossible to say with certainty how much of a threat the new coronavirus variant emerging in southern Africa poses, but a few aspects of the market reaction so far may shed some light on what to expect over the next few weeks if the news is bad.

26 November 2021

Capital Daily

We think E-Z peripheral spreads will widen further, eventually

While the accounts of the ECB’s October meeting and recent comments by some ECB officials suggest to us that there might not be much scope for euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to increase further in the near term, we still expect them to widen slightly in the next year or two as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy.

25 November 2021

More from Adam Hoyes

Precious Metals Update

We still think gold will lose its shine

After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb.

30 June 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks declined again last week. However, with both implied demand for most products and refinery activity close to pre-pandemic levels, we think the pace of draws will stabilise.

23 June 2021

Energy Update

Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling

Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue for the rest of the year, but this won’t stop rising supply pushing oil prices lower by end-year.

17 June 2021
↑ Back to top