Australia & New Zealand

RBA set to hike in 2023

With the latest lockdowns set to end next month, we expect the RBA to taper its bond purchases in February. We still expect wage growth to accelerate more rapidly than the Bank anticipates and stick to our forecast for the first rate hike in early-2023.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much

Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect migration to ease labour shortages in New Zealand much next year. Nonetheless, New Zealand’s labour market is already very tight and with the RBNZ set to keep tightening monetary policy, we expect unemployment to creep higher over the next couple of years.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21)

Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters.

25 November 2021

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

APRA to impose lending restrictions by mid-2022

While house prices have surged, household debt remains contained and lending standards remain sound overall. However, housing credit growth is set to accelerate and there are already signs that some households are borrowing too much. The upshot is that we now expect regulators to impose restrictions on debt-to-income ratios by the middle of next year.

24 September 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Sep. 2021)

September’s flash PMIs suggest that while the services sector is bouncing back as the delta wave has ebbed, the manufacturing sector is suffering from weaker demand and mounting supply shortages.

24 September 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Rising household debt will limit scope for rate hikes

High and rising household debt in Australia and New Zealand will limit central banks’ scope to hike interest rates. The upshot is that we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by a modest 125bp in the tightening cycle set to start next month, while the RBA’s policy rate may only surpass 1% in 2024.    

23 September 2021
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