Australia & New Zealand
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GDP (Q2)

The surge in GDP growth in the first half of the year meant that the Australian economy notched up 27 years without a recession in style. But with house prices falling, credit conditions tightening and the support from the global economy fading, the second half of the year probably won’t be quite as good.
Julie Nicol Office Administrator (Singapore)
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last

The strong rebound in consumer spending in November is consistent with our view that GDP surpassed its pre-lockdown peak in Q4 already. And while the Omicron tsunami seems to have resulted in a renewed slowdown in consumption, mounting staff shortages and disruptions to goods supply will result in continued strong increases in consumer prices. The upshot is that we still expect the RBA to end its bond purchases in three weeks, though the sluggishness in wage growth means we don’t expect the first rate hike until early next year.

14 January 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Housing downturn will lead to RBNZ rate cuts in 2023

While the strength in New Zealand’s economy will cause the RBNZ to hike rates further this year, we think the RBNZ will end its hiking cycle earlier than the financial markets anticipate. What’s more, we think a housing downturn in 2022 will weigh on the economy at the same time as inflation is easing and the labour market is loosening. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to cut rates in 2023. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales/External Trade (Nov. 2021)

November’s data support our view that GDP will surpass its pre-delta level in Q4. But while the strength in retail sales is set to fade in the months ahead as Omicron weighs on consumption, the likely drag from net trade to GDP growth in Q4 is also likely to reverse in Q1.

11 January 2022

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Australia & New Zealand Chart Book

Unemployment rates to rise

The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate in ten months. But the rate of jobs growth isn’t strong enough to keep up with growth in the labour force, so the unemployment rate is now the highest it has been in eight months. And with business surveys, job ads and economic activity all pointing to softer employment growth we suspect the unemployment rate will rise further this year. In New Zealand we suspect the slowdown in employment growth has further to run,which should flow through to an increase in the unemployment rate before long.

3 June 2019

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May)

Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick rebound.

3 June 2019

India Economics Weekly

Modi sworn in, Finance Minister speculation

Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for his second term this week, and one of his first key tasks will be to select a new Finance Minister after Arun Jaitley announced that he would be stepping down from the post. Of the two apparent front-runners, the appointment of Piyush Goyal would point to policy continuity, while the appointment of Amit Shah would raise the prospect of looser fiscal policy.

31 May 2019
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