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Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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More from Australia & New Zealand

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

More 50bp hikes coming

We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow concerned that wage growth will be too strong to allow the Bank to meet its target. And the RBA is still lagging behind a number of its peers in its hiking cycle. We therefore expect the RBA to hike rates to a peak of 3.1%, higher than the analyst consensus of a peak of 2.60%.

24 June 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Inflationary pressures keep building

The big minimum wage hike announced by the fair work commission this week will lead to higher wage growth over the coming year. Given the tightness in the labour market and rising cost pressures, businesses will be forced to pass that rise onto consumers. That suggests the risks to our forecast that inflation will peak just above 7% in Q3, are tilted to the upside. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  

17 June 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (May 2022)

The strong rise in employment in May will keep pressure on the RBA to continue its aggressive hiking cycle in the months ahead. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  

16 June 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q3 2021)

With private consumption now rebounding strongly as lockdowns have ended, output in states not affected by lockdowns continuing to rise, and capital spending resilient, we expect GDP to surpass its pre-Delta peak this quarter already and to keep surprising to the upside next year.

1 December 2021

RBA Watch

Market pricing on RBA still too optimistic

The rapid rebound in activity from the recent lockdowns coupled with a further pick-up in underlying inflation should prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to taper its bond purchases in February and to end them in August. However, we believe that the financial markets are too optimistic about both the timing and the scale of rate hikes.

30 November 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

Retail sales kept rising in October despite another drop in motor vehicles sales. With supply disruptions now starting to ease and mobility picking up, they should continue to increase.

29 November 2021
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