SA’s recovery, all change in Tanzania

The latest hard activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economy started Q2 on a weak footing and, while there were signs of improvement in May, tighter containment measures are likely to have dampened activity this month. One consequence is that we doubt that the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates in the near term. Elsewhere, reports this week that Tanzania is planning to join the Covax facility to secure vaccines add to signs of a broader improvement in policymaking under the new president, and bode well for the country’s growth prospects.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI tanked in July as activity was hit by violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. And while activity is likely to rebound this month, South Africa’s recovery is likely to continue to lag behind other major EMs.

2 August 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria

"Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal consolidation plan, but the path to do so has narrowed again. Meanwhile in Nigeria, the central bank’s move this week to shake up foreign exchange provision in the country risks hurting economic activity and exacerbating inflationary pressures."

30 July 2021

Africa Chart Book

Delta threat building

The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the worst of its latest outbreak, although it now has to contend with the legacy of violence and unrest earlier this month. Elsewhere, cases are rising quickly and could dampen recoveries. Extremely low vaccine coverage makes the region particularly vulnerable to this variant and potential future ones. Even in South Africa, where the rollout is quick by regional standards, at the current pace it would take a year for vaccine coverage to reach the levels offering protection against new variants seen in DMs.

29 July 2021

More from William Jackson

Latin America Data Response

Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.3% y/y, means Copom will continue to hike when it meets next month. But the data are not quite enough to prompt a shift from 75bp hikes to a larger 100bp move. Meanwhile, with Chilean core inflation continuing to run above target and optimism about the economy growing, we now think the central bank will start its tightening cycle when it meets next week.

8 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike (to 6.25%) seems most likely, but the probability of an even larger 100bp hike has risen.

7 July 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM credit growth: where do the risks lie?

With the (usual) exception of Turkey, the strong rates of credit growth seen in some EMs including Brazil and Korea are unlikely to be sustained as policymakers have already started (or will soon turn to) tightening policy. The bigger concern is the extreme weakness of credit growth in other EMs such as Mexico and the Philippines, which threatens to further hold back economic recoveries.

6 July 2021
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