Filling gaps: vaccine supply in SSA & electricity in SA

Leaders of G7 nations meeting this week are ramping up efforts to provide more vaccines to the developing world, which – along with the prospect of larger supplies from China – could give a lift to struggling inoculation campaigns and economic recoveries in Africa. Meanwhile, South Africa announced further steps to address its chronic electricity supply problem that has long weighed on the economy, but the measures will probably take some time to bear fruit.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The surprise rise in inflation in Nigeria, to 15.6% y/y in December, will more likely than not prove to be a blip. We don’t think that policymakers will rush to raise interest rates in response.

17 January 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC leadership contest, Ghana’s debt, Ethiopia’s conflict

Leftist factions of South Africa’s ruling ANC already appear to be gearing up to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa in December’s leadership election and this is likely to push fiscal policy in a looser direction, worsening the country’s debt problems. Debt concerns are also building in Ghana and remain elevated in Ethiopia as well, even though there are signs that the internal conflict is abating.

14 January 2022

Africa Economics Update

What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will rise more quickly than most anticipate. Debt risks are also likely to build in other parts of the region. Meanwhile, Nigerian officials will probably double down on their unorthodox policies. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (May)

The second consecutive drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.9% y/y in May, will probably go some way towards easing policymakers’ recent concerns about high and rising inflation. While we expect inflation to remain well above the central bank’s target for the foreseeable future, the MPC is likely to keep interest rates unchanged over the coming years.

15 June 2021

Africa Economics Focus

The perils of deficit monetisation in Nigeria

Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the fiscal position worsens next year (as we expect). This will deepen some of Nigeria’s existing economic woes, including high inflation, downward pressure on the naira and weak economic growth.

14 June 2021

Africa Economics Update

SA: mixed industry performance to converge to weakness

South African hard activity data for April painted a mixed picture about the rebound in the mining and manufacturing sectors. By and large, though, the economy is in for a slow and bumpy recovery.

10 June 2021
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