Nigeria: Budget plan underlines fiscal problems

Nigeria’s latest budget plan has strengthened our view that the fiscal position is unsustainable and that the country will face some kind of debt crisis within five years.
John Ashbourne Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The surprise rise in inflation in Nigeria, to 15.6% y/y in December, will more likely than not prove to be a blip. We don’t think that policymakers will rush to raise interest rates in response.

17 January 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC leadership contest, Ghana’s debt, Ethiopia’s conflict

Leftist factions of South Africa’s ruling ANC already appear to be gearing up to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa in December’s leadership election and this is likely to push fiscal policy in a looser direction, worsening the country’s debt problems. Debt concerns are also building in Ghana and remain elevated in Ethiopia as well, even though there are signs that the internal conflict is abating.

14 January 2022

Africa Economics Update

What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will rise more quickly than most anticipate. Debt risks are also likely to build in other parts of the region. Meanwhile, Nigerian officials will probably double down on their unorthodox policies. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

More from John Ashbourne

Africa Economics Weekly

Tumbling rand, coronavirus containment, default risks

The current risk-off sentiment means that the South African rand’s slide this week will probably continue in the near term. And escalating containment measures will take an economic toll, despite worries about their effectiveness. In the meantime, the coronavirus and low commodity prices are putting pressure on most African economies’ balance of payments positions and pushing many sovereigns closer to default.

3 April 2020

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)

South Africa’s PMI jumped in March, but only due to a statistical quirk in the compilation process. The underlying data suggest that the economy was, in fact, weakening even before the recent lockdown.

1 April 2020

Africa Economics Update

S. Africa: Anticlimactic downgrade tells us little new

Given the scale of ongoing global market turbulence, Moody’s decision to strip South Africa of its last investment grade rating will have less immediate effect than some had feared. That said, the country’s already grim debt outlook has deteriorated significantly given the sharp fall in GDP likely this year.

30 March 2020
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