Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new cabinet, Chile’s economic pain Recent reports suggest that Argentina President-elect Alberto Fernández, who takes office on Tuesday, has selected Martín Guzmán as his economy minister. That’s unlikely to inspire much investor... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Asia improves but Emerging Europe weakens The November manufacturing PMIs point to diverging prospects for EM manufacturers at a regional level, with conditions improving in most of Emerging Asia but deteriorating in Emerging Europe. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a closer look at debt restructuring President-elect Alberto Fernández’s plan to resolve Argentina’s debt crisis by growing the economy is not a realistic option. We think that a large debt write-down within a few years is inevitable... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political uncertainty reigns in Argentina and Chile The victory for Peronist Alberto Fernández in Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday provoked a small negative shock in local financial markets. And the fact that he has done little to soothe... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Tepid recovery on the horizon Our Trackers suggest that growth slowed across large parts of the emerging world in Q3. But aggregate EM growth is probably close to bottoming out and we expect that it will strengthen a little in... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: First thoughts following Fernández win There is still a lot of uncertainty following Alberto Fernández’s widely-expected victory in Argentina’s presidential election, but one point we would stress is that a large debt write-down will... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reform in Brazil, protests in Chile, election in Argentina A victory for Peronist candidate Alberto Fernández in this weekend’s presidential election in Argentina looks almost certain and attention is likely to focus on any early signs that he will govern as... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Fernández win mean for Argentina? Left-wing Peronist Alberto Fernández is widely expected to win Sunday’s presidential election, and we think that his tenure would be marked by more accommodative policy, persistently high inflation... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM core inflation weakest on record The continued decline in core inflation across many emerging markets supports our view that most central banks’ easing cycles have further to run. Our measure of EM core inflation fell to 2.8% y/y... 18th October 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lessons from the history of globalisation History shows that waves of globalisation are driven by both technology and policy, but protectionist shifts alone tend to end them. In some cases, like in the 1970s, a moderate pushback by... 8th October 2019 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from the history of globalisation History shows that waves of globalisation are driven by both technology and policy, but protectionist shifts alone tend to end them. In some cases, like in the 1970s, a moderate pushback by... 8th October 2019 · 20 mins read
