Latin America Economics Weekly Currencies rally, easing lockdowns, IMF and Argentina Latin American currencies have outperformed this week amid the improvement in global risk appetite, but this largely seems to reflect the fact that they had fallen furthest in the first place. In the... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: restructuring deal may not be enough The recent progress in talks between Argentina’s government and bondholders suggests that a debt restructuring deal is increasingly likely. However, we are sceptical of the IMF’s view that the... 4th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico set for further easing, early signs of fiscal hit Banxico’s latest Quarterly Report and the minutes to its mid-May meeting suggests that more monetary easing is on the cards. Otherwise, the April fiscal data for Brazil and Argentina show early signs... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Becoming the coronavirus epicentre The coronavirus has continued to spread rapidly across much of the region, with Brazil now registering the most new cases per day of any country in the world. And on a per capita basis, the surge in... 29th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: comparisons with 2001/02 One major difference between Argentina’s current crisis and the historic 2001/02 episode is that the hit to private sector balance sheets should be smaller. So even though the coronavirus will cause a... 11th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Pemex troubles While the deluge of depressing economic data has grabbed the headlines in most regions, in Latin America, Brazil's political crisis has taken up the most column inches. Although the crisis has eased a... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Lockdowns easing only in parts of the region The Latin American economies that moved early to contain the coronavirus – Chile, Colombia and Peru – are all now starting to look at ways to ease lockdown measures, which should support a gradual... 1st May 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The 1.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q1 was slightly better than many had expected, but the outturn in Q2 is likely to be much worse. We expect an 8% fall in GDP over this year as a whole – one of the... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to come out worst The downturn in Latin America this year will the deepest since reliable records began. The slow policy responses in Brazil and Mexico, as well as struggles to bring their coronavirus outbreaks under... 24th April 2020 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of low oil prices on Mexico The plunge in oil prices is yet another drag on Mexico’s freefalling economy, and may hasten a move by Pemex to restructure its external debts. The government’s lacklustre response to the economic... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five Q&As on Argentina’s restructuring proposal The Argentine government’s aggressive proposal to restructure its international bonds entails over $40bn in debt relief, which would go some way to restoring public debt sustainability. However, there... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
