Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Middle East tensions and the impact on EM rates Rising tensions in the Middle East present a significant upside risk to our oil price and inflation forecasts, and could force a handful of EM central banks to abandon easing cycles or even hike... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Capital controls: the good, the bad and the ugly Capital controls can be an effective tool if policymakers are able to plug loopholes and address the underlying economic vulnerabilities that initially resulted in pressures on the financial account... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.4% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in July adds to our view that economic activity remains subdued and Banxico will cut interest rates later this month. 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation from 3.8% y/y in July to 3.2% y/y in August is likely to be followed by further falls over the rest of the year. That should pave the way for more monetary easing... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine capital controls, Chile cuts, weakness in Brazil The introduction of capital controls in Argentina last weekend seems to have stabilised the official foreign exchange market, but it is likely to have pernicious economic effects. Moreover, while... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing showing signs of stabilisation The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI for August is further evidence that the slowdown in EM GDP growth has bottomed out. But the surveys remain consistent with sluggish growth, and we continue to... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Risks to the yen still lie to the upside The Japanese yen has continued to appreciate and is now close to our year-end forecast of ¥105/$. Though the drivers behind its strength may shift, we expect upward pressure on the yen to persist. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Trade war not certain to force the Fed’s hand Unlike in Australia, interest rates are likely to be cut in New Zealand We think that GDP growth in the UK stagnated in Q2 (Friday) We expect the US ISM non-manufacturing index to have edged higher in... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Twin stock and bond rally probably nearing an end The strong performance of both equities and government bonds this year reflects a view that monetary easing will put the global economy back on track very soon – an outlook that seems too benign to us... 1st August 2019 · 33 mins read
Capital Daily Investors still too optimistic about the Fed’s ability to save the day Fed Chair might provide clarity on rate cut prospects in semi-annual testimony (Wednesday) US inflation may have been boosted in June by the increase in tariffs on Chinese goods We think that euro... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ policy stance may put upward pressure on the yen We have long forecast the yen to strengthen to ¥105/$ by the end of 2019, primarily based on our expectation that a sell-off in global equities would boost the demand for safe havens. While we remain... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
