Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Although Mexico’s headline inflation was above the central bank’s target, at 4.1%, in the first half of October, with price pressures likely to ease and activity still weak, we think that Banxico’s... 22nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly ARS adjustment inevitable, Bolivia’s election Pressure is mounting on Argentina’s central bank as it attempts to manage the peso with rapidly diminishing FX reserves. While policymakers have poured cold water on growing speculation of a currency... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.3% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in August was largely driven by a delayed rebound in construction output. Manufacturing production only rose by 0.8%, and more timely indicators... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The stabilisation in Mexican inflation at 4.0%, after four successive monthly rises, should dampen hawkish sentiment at Mexico’s central bank. We think there is scope for at least one more 25bp rate... 8th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA changes tack, Brazil’s Renda Cidadã mess The announcement by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) of a new monetary policy strategy, in which it will allow a ‘managed float’ of the peso, reduces the risk of the real exchange rate becoming... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Light at the end of the tunnel? The latest figures suggest that the number of COVID-19 infections in the region has passed its peak – new cases are down by 35-60% compared to their July/August peaks in most of the large Latin... 30th September 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currencies under fire, Mexico’s tepid recovery While Latin American currencies have come under pressure this week, we think that they will rebound over the coming quarters as global risk appetite and commodity prices generally improve. Otherwise... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.1% over the first half of September, was mainly driven by higher food and fuel prices. We suspect that the central bank will look past this and cut its... 24th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dim outlook for Argentina’s crushed economy With new virus cases still high, capital controls more pervasive, and fiscal policy unlikely to stay loose, we are nudging down our Argentina GDP forecasts. We now expect an 11% drop this year and... 23rd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s cepo, Brazil’s fiscal saga continues The tightening of capital controls (“ el cepo”) in Argentina will give the central bank some breathing room as it attempts to manage the peso over the coming months. But Argentina’s experience using... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s Federative Pact, assessing the MXN rally Brazil’s congress will reportedly receive a plan for the Federative Pact reform next week, which would ease concerns about the public finances. But we don’t think worries that the government might... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The marked slowdown in Mexico’s industrial production growth from 17.9% m/m in June to 6.9% m/m in July suggests the economic recovery was losing momentum at the start of Q3 – a trend which we expect... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
