Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s current account surplus, Brazil payrolls The eye-catching swing in Mexico’s current account, from a small deficit in Q2 to a huge surplus in Q3, was driven by a much stronger rebound in goods exports than imports last quarter. While the... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Not all doom and gloom for Latin America The positive news on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines offers hope for the region’s economy. As things stand, Chile and, to a lesser extent, Mexico look well placed to benefit given their sizeable pre... 25th November 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Nov.) The fall in Mexican inflation, to 3.4% y/y, in the middle of this month, supports our view that Banxico will cut its policy rate by a further 25bp, which we now expect to happen at next month’s... 24th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andean pension withdrawals, Pemex financing Amidst the recent political turmoil in Peru, a second pension withdrawal bill was passed through Congress and a similar plan is in the pipeline in Chile. While they would boost private consumption in... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA vs. the Argentine peso: what next? Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) is running out of FX reserves to prop up the peso and it may soon devalue the currency. Even so, it would take an overhaul of the monetary policy setup, probably under... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3 2020) The 5.2% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q3 may seem small relative to the 13.5% q/q drop in Q2. But the recovery was accelerating through the quarter, and we think that output will return to its pre... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2020) The 8.7% q/q rebound in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 meant output was still 9% below its pre-virus level by the end of the quarter. Although hopes for a vaccine have brightened the outlook, weak fiscal... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Post-US election fallout, BCB rate hikes still a way off The most likely outcome from the US election – a Biden win alongside a divided Senate – is arguably the best possible result for Latin America. Mexico will probably face a less antagonistic trading... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 3.9% y/y in October, from 3.1% y/y in September, was (again) mostly driven by higher food inflation. We don’t think that the central bank will be too... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s solid 2.6% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production took output above its pre-crisis level, and suggests the economy continued to fare well at the end of Q3. The latest surveys point to... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latest surveys suggest Brazil remains ahead of Mexico We think that the latest activity surveys for October may be overstating growth in Brazil, although they reinforce the view that its economy remains ahead of Mexico at this stage of the recovery. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US election & Latin America: what’s at stake? The result of Tuesday’s US election is unlikely to be as important for Mexico as it was four years ago, with domestic factors remaining key to its bleak economic outlook. However, Biden’s climate... 2nd November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Prov.) The 12% q/q rebound in Mexico’s GDP in Q3 still left output some 8% below its Q4 2019 level. And the recovery lost significant momentum throughout the quarter – a trend which we expect to continue. 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional recovery slowing The latest hard activity data show that the pace of recovery eased across most of the region in August and more timely figures suggest that the trend continued in late Q3 and early Q4, indicating that... 28th October 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The potential fallout from Chile’s referendum The overwhelming vote in favour of rewriting Chile’s constitution will set the ball rolling towards entrenching a larger role of the state in the economy. And it may cause the central bank to adopt a... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s referendum, BCB’s autonomy Chile’s electorate is likely to vote in favour of having a new constitution on Sunday, which may start a long process towards entrenching greater state intervention in the economy. That would help to... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
